Pakistan: Milestones and blockades on the route to democracy
By Hummaa Ahmad The post-election scenario in Pakistan - without a Bhutto at the forefront - has thrown open myriad socio-political factors, contrasts and complexities with implications impacting the country's future. There are the partisans who support the road map towards shared goals, with brisk constitutional review, restoration of the sacked judges and Musharraf's possible impeachment to underscore lasting democratic change. There are the impatient cynics who are irritated at the political manoeuvres and delays in nominating a candidate for the prime minister's office by the Pakistan People's Party (PPP). There are others who believe the PPP and Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N) have no choice but to work together. Finally, there are the sceptics, who remain convinced a PPP-PML-N fallout is inevitable, leading to a quasi-military diktat taking over democratic processes - under America's watchful eye. Although neither Nawaz Sharif nor Asif Ali Zardari is standing for office, both head parties that for years hated each other. During the 1990s each used the military to overthrow the other party. Concern is manifest about the longevity of coalition partnerships-in-the-making, particularly between two ideologically different groups like the PPP and the PML-N that, until now, have worked in opposition. The personal records of both party stalwarts while in office add fuel to the sceptic's fire. As a minister in Bhutto's government, Zardari faced kickback allegations that put him in jail on corruption charges for eight years. He's since been cleared in most cases against him. Sharif also had a reputation for corruption and graft while in office. In 1999, Musharraf jailed him on kidnapping and corruption charges before exiling him to Saudi Arabia. Both men have reasonable motive to work together for personal settling of scores against Musharraf, besides engineering a re-branding of themselves as wiser statesmen. The three allied parties - the PPP, PML-N and the Awami National Party (ANP), a Pashtun nationalist party from the Northwest Frontier Province - are three seats short of the needed two-thirds majority of 228 in the house of 342 seats. This is important because if Musharraf's enemies are to impeach him - as is widely believed they will attempt to - they need to muster at least two-thirds of the members in a joint sitting of the upper and lower houses of parliament. As pressure mounts it is still uncertain what Musharraf's next tactic will be. The inter-party negotiations for power sharing between the PPP, PML-N and ANP have moved forward slowly, culminating with the PPP and PML-N agreeing to form a coalition government. Both parties agreed on the reinstatement of deposed judges within thirty days after the formation of a federal government in parliament. The PPP-chosen prime minister would carry forward a mutual agenda fully supported by the coalition parties. The delay in nomination of a prime minister by the PPP is raising questions about party unity without Bhutto at the helm. The party favourite overall had been Makhdoom Amin Fahim, its longest-serving MP. A PPP loyalist and long time deputy to Bhutto, Fahim led the party during Bhutto's eight-year exile. Since the elections progressively covert marginalisation of Fahim seemed evident. This culminated in Makhdoom Yousuf Raza Gilani's swearing in as prime minister. Fahim has since maintained a stoic but dignified stance in public. It may be that he has retreated from the ring only to fight another day. Within moments of Gilani's nomination being confirmed in the National Assembly, he announced all judges still under house arrest - including former Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry - would be released, to applause all round. Still, the opposition parties' mutual resolve to clip the presidency of its sweeping powers is high on the agenda. Without such powers, Musharraf would remain just a nominal head of state working on the advice of a prime minister. Although he is well equipped under the current Pakistan constitution with the authority to sack the prime minister and dissolve parliament, to do so at this delicate juncture would serve only to alienate him further from Pakistanis and the world community. Musharraf has already stated "he is elected for five years and will not allow any anarchy over the matter." While the winning political parties are taking a parliamentary course to deal with the aftermath of the emergency, the legal community has renewed its campaign for the restoration of the pre-Nov.3 judiciary, which could overturn the post-Nov.3 Supreme Court's validation of the president's candidacy. Without his army support base - and with the Pakistan Muslim League-Q's (PML-Q) seriously depleted membership in parliament - Musharraf's grip on power appears increasingly tenuous. Whether his autocratic stance could tolerate a final humiliation - in the form of parliament reversing his previous actions and then unseating him - seems unlikely. What his response will be given a comprehensive exit strategy is not apparent, barring an US-engineered ace, or several, up his Presidential sleeve. Writing in The News, Islamabad-based security analyst Naseem Zehra's opined Musharraf hasn't accepted reality: "President Musharraf has not humbly accepted the verdict of the people," he said. "He still seems to be playing his political cards…any move that can lead to confrontation and the eventual weakening of the elected forces must be avoided, yet with the president's personal activism on issues ranging from the legitimacy of his presidency and the restoration of the judiciary, he is contributing to the distortion of Pakistan's post-election scenario." Pakistan's history shows the army has held power directly for 34 of the country's 60 years in existence. No civilian prime minister has ever completed a term of office without direct or indirect intervention by the military. Despite Gen. Ashfaq Kiyani's assurances of removing the army from politics and public affairs, it still remains the country's most powerful institution. Extricating the army - now heavily entrenched into civilian institutions, finance, government and as head of corporations - isn't going to be easy; even now the country remains at the crossroads to democracy and authoritarianism. The challenges a new government faces internally and externally are glaring: destabilising sectarian ethnic divisions, religious extremists, threats to security, huge economic disparities and imbalances, poverty, and poor literacy rates and rising inflation. Added to this is the regional security dimension. Pakistan's profile as nuclear state in South Asia places it in a strategically pivotal arena. It borders Afghanistan, India, Iran and China and its ports are a gateway to the Gulf. An unstable Pakistan does not bode well for anyone and US strategic interests in Pakistan have not waned. How the US positions itself vis-ŕ-vis the 'new' Pakistan en route to democracy isn't yet clear. If background moves by the US to ensure 'their guy' remains in the fray are underway, it means Pakistan hasn't seen the last of Musharraf. In the evolving equation of possibilities, one question remains constant: whether the people's legitimate right to decide their country's future leadership will remain intact, or whether the thrust of power will still be 'willed' upon them by what currently seems still to be a nebulous coalition of democratic parties shadowed by internal and external vested interests. - Hummaa Ahmad is the former executive editor of Pakistan's The News International Press curbs The Nov. 3, 2007 imposition of emergency rule brought in press curbs blocking the publication or broadcasting of "anything which defames or brings into ridicule the head of state, or members of the armed forces, or executive, legislative or judicial organ of the state". Print and electronic media were banned from material likely to "jeopardise or be prejudicial to the ideology of Pakistan or the sovereignty, integrity or security of Pakistan, or any material that is likely to incite violence or hatred or create inter-faith disorder or be prejudiced". Television discussions of anything deemed "false or baseless" by the regulatory authorities were also banned. The curbs severely restricted free expression ahead of the Feb. 18 election. These included prohibited coverage of election rallies, live call-ins, live talk shows, live coverage of protests, or any live broadcasts showing the government negatively. For a time there was a blackout of all private television channels throughout the country. Despite this, the journalists I spoke to said they and members of the foreign media had been allowed to operate fairly efficiently and were largely free from harassment during the elections. All these provisions remain in force, even though the state of emergency was lifted on Dec. 15, 2007. This eased restrictions and allowed for reasonable election coverage even where rigging was suspected. Both the PPP and PML-N have proposed to rescind amendments to media law as part of their campaign promises for meaningful change. The threat from the spate of suicide blasts and security problems both pre and post-election have seen a few journalists killed or injured. Reports of missing journalists are still surfacing with fingers being pointed to the intelligence services.
By Hummaa Ahmad The post-election scenario in Pakistan - without a Bhutto at the forefront - has thrown open myriad socio-political factors, contrasts and complexities with implications impacting the country's future. There are the partisans who support the road map towards shared goals, with brisk constitutional review, restoration of the sacked judges and Musharraf's possible impeachment to underscore lasting democratic change. There are the impatient cynics who are irritated at the political manoeuvres and delays in nominating a candidate for the prime minister's office by the Pakistan People's Party (PPP). There are others who believe the PPP and Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N) have no choice but to work together. Finally, there are the sceptics, who remain convinced a PPP-PML-N fallout is inevitable, leading to a quasi-military diktat taking over democratic processes - under America's watchful eye. Although neither Nawaz Sharif nor Asif Ali Zardari is standing for office, both head parties that for years hated each other. During the 1990s each used the military to overthrow the other party. Concern is manifest about the longevity of coalition partnerships-in-the-making, particularly between two ideologically different groups like the PPP and the PML-N that, until now, have worked in opposition. The personal records of both party stalwarts while in office add fuel to the sceptic's fire. As a minister in Bhutto's government, Zardari faced kickback allegations that put him in jail on corruption charges for eight years. He's since been cleared in most cases against him. Sharif also had a reputation for corruption and graft while in office. In 1999, Musharraf jailed him on kidnapping and corruption charges before exiling him to Saudi Arabia. Both men have reasonable motive to work together for personal settling of scores against Musharraf, besides engineering a re-branding of themselves as wiser statesmen. The three allied parties - the PPP, PML-N and the Awami National Party (ANP), a Pashtun nationalist party from the Northwest Frontier Province - are three seats short of the needed two-thirds majority of 228 in the house of 342 seats. This is important because if Musharraf's enemies are to impeach him - as is widely believed they will attempt to - they need to muster at least two-thirds of the members in a joint sitting of the upper and lower houses of parliament. As pressure mounts it is still uncertain what Musharraf's next tactic will be. The inter-party negotiations for power sharing between the PPP, PML-N and ANP have moved forward slowly, culminating with the PPP and PML-N agreeing to form a coalition government. Both parties agreed on the reinstatement of deposed judges within thirty days after the formation of a federal government in parliament. The PPP-chosen prime minister would carry forward a mutual agenda fully supported by the coalition parties. The delay in nomination of a prime minister by the PPP is raising questions about party unity without Bhutto at the helm. The party favourite overall had been Makhdoom Amin Fahim, its longest-serving MP. A PPP loyalist and long time deputy to Bhutto, Fahim led the party during Bhutto's eight-year exile. Since the elections progressively covert marginalisation of Fahim seemed evident. This culminated in Makhdoom Yousuf Raza Gilani's swearing in as prime minister. Fahim has since maintained a stoic but dignified stance in public. It may be that he has retreated from the ring only to fight another day. Within moments of Gilani's nomination being confirmed in the National Assembly, he announced all judges still under house arrest - including former Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry - would be released, to applause all round. Still, the opposition parties' mutual resolve to clip the presidency of its sweeping powers is high on the agenda. Without such powers, Musharraf would remain just a nominal head of state working on the advice of a prime minister. Although he is well equipped under the current Pakistan constitution with the authority to sack the prime minister and dissolve parliament, to do so at this delicate juncture would serve only to alienate him further from Pakistanis and the world community. Musharraf has already stated "he is elected for five years and will not allow any anarchy over the matter." While the winning political parties are taking a parliamentary course to deal with the aftermath of the emergency, the legal community has renewed its campaign for the restoration of the pre-Nov.3 judiciary, which could overturn the post-Nov.3 Supreme Court's validation of the president's candidacy. Without his army support base - and with the Pakistan Muslim League-Q's (PML-Q) seriously depleted membership in parliament - Musharraf's grip on power appears increasingly tenuous. Whether his autocratic stance could tolerate a final humiliation - in the form of parliament reversing his previous actions and then unseating him - seems unlikely. What his response will be given a comprehensive exit strategy is not apparent, barring an US-engineered ace, or several, up his Presidential sleeve. Writing in The News, Islamabad-based security analyst Naseem Zehra's opined Musharraf hasn't accepted reality: "President Musharraf has not humbly accepted the verdict of the people," he said. "He still seems to be playing his political cards…any move that can lead to confrontation and the eventual weakening of the elected forces must be avoided, yet with the president's personal activism on issues ranging from the legitimacy of his presidency and the restoration of the judiciary, he is contributing to the distortion of Pakistan's post-election scenario." Pakistan's history shows the army has held power directly for 34 of the country's 60 years in existence. No civilian prime minister has ever completed a term of office without direct or indirect intervention by the military. Despite Gen. Ashfaq Kiyani's assurances of removing the army from politics and public affairs, it still remains the country's most powerful institution. Extricating the army - now heavily entrenched into civilian institutions, finance, government and as head of corporations - isn't going to be easy; even now the country remains at the crossroads to democracy and authoritarianism. The challenges a new government faces internally and externally are glaring: destabilising sectarian ethnic divisions, religious extremists, threats to security, huge economic disparities and imbalances, poverty, and poor literacy rates and rising inflation. Added to this is the regional security dimension. Pakistan's profile as nuclear state in South Asia places it in a strategically pivotal arena. It borders Afghanistan, India, Iran and China and its ports are a gateway to the Gulf. An unstable Pakistan does not bode well for anyone and US strategic interests in Pakistan have not waned. How the US positions itself vis-ŕ-vis the 'new' Pakistan en route to democracy isn't yet clear. If background moves by the US to ensure 'their guy' remains in the fray are underway, it means Pakistan hasn't seen the last of Musharraf. In the evolving equation of possibilities, one question remains constant: whether the people's legitimate right to decide their country's future leadership will remain intact, or whether the thrust of power will still be 'willed' upon them by what currently seems still to be a nebulous coalition of democratic parties shadowed by internal and external vested interests. - Hummaa Ahmad is the former executive editor of Pakistan's The News International Press curbs The Nov. 3, 2007 imposition of emergency rule brought in press curbs blocking the publication or broadcasting of "anything which defames or brings into ridicule the head of state, or members of the armed forces, or executive, legislative or judicial organ of the state". Print and electronic media were banned from material likely to "jeopardise or be prejudicial to the ideology of Pakistan or the sovereignty, integrity or security of Pakistan, or any material that is likely to incite violence or hatred or create inter-faith disorder or be prejudiced". Television discussions of anything deemed "false or baseless" by the regulatory authorities were also banned. The curbs severely restricted free expression ahead of the Feb. 18 election. These included prohibited coverage of election rallies, live call-ins, live talk shows, live coverage of protests, or any live broadcasts showing the government negatively. For a time there was a blackout of all private television channels throughout the country. Despite this, the journalists I spoke to said they and members of the foreign media had been allowed to operate fairly efficiently and were largely free from harassment during the elections. All these provisions remain in force, even though the state of emergency was lifted on Dec. 15, 2007. This eased restrictions and allowed for reasonable election coverage even where rigging was suspected. Both the PPP and PML-N have proposed to rescind amendments to media law as part of their campaign promises for meaningful change. The threat from the spate of suicide blasts and security problems both pre and post-election have seen a few journalists killed or injured. Reports of missing journalists are still surfacing with fingers being pointed to the intelligence services.
